Sudan’s economic prospects have improved in the IMF’s latest forecast, which envisions the war ending by late 2025 and a rapid reconstruction phase following. The updated projections mark a shift from contraction to growth in the medium term.

The IMF expects the economy to shrink by 23.4% in 2024, unchanged from earlier estimates, reflecting the ongoing devastation of production and trade. Yet, 2025 is projected to see a turnaround, with growth of 3.2%—a major revision from the previous expectation of a 0.4% decline.

For 2026, the Fund raised its projection to 9.5% growth, up from 8.8%, citing the expected recovery of agriculture, oil, mining, and infrastructure. The rebound would depend on peace, institutional reforms, and external financial support.

The IMF emphasized that sustainable growth will require rebuilding investor confidence, restoring basic services, and managing the humanitarian fallout of one of the worst crises in Sudan’s modern history.